A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Transform Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Caution

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."